Trend in Non-communicable Disease Incidence and Prevalence in Iraq 2003-2019

Introduction

In the evolving landscape of Iraqi healthcare, the emergence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) stands as a formidable challenge [1]. While strides have been made in combating infectious diseases, the escalating prevalence of NCDs demands immediate attention. Lifestyle shifts and post-conflict adversities have propelled diseases like cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancer to the forefront of our healthcare concerns [2, 3]. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study 2019 (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), this analysis observed a nuanced trajectory of NCDs in Iraq from

2003 to 2019. While the age-standardized prevalence of all cancers exhibited a modest increase, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) showed a marginal decline. Conversely, diabetes and kidney diseases demonstrated a worrisome escalation. These trends underscore the complex interplay of demographic shifts, lifestyle modifications, and healthcare access (Table 1). Regarding the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), diabetes and kidney diseases ranked as the most prevalent in 2003 (13,979.47/100,000) and in 2019 (15,934.33/100,000). The ASPR of all cancers increased slightly from 9,454.53/100,000 in 2003 to 9,681.11/100,000 in 2019. However, the ASPR of cardiovascular diseases decreased slightly from 8,827.48 /100,000 in 2003 to 8,721.14/100,000 in 2019. In terms of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), excluding other non-communicable diseases, skin skin and substance diseases were the highest in both years, with 42,295.76/100,000 in 2003 and 43,301.38/100,000 in 2019. Followed by neurological disorders and all cancers.

Table1: The age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of non-communicable diseases in Iraq 2003-2019.

Possible Reasons for Increases

Several factors contribute to the surge in NCD prevalence. An aging populace, coupled with changes in lifestyle behaviors such as dietary habits and tobacco consumption, exacerbates disease burdens [1] [3]. Furthermore, disparities in healthcare access exacerbate the plight of vulnerable populations, hindering timely interventions [4]. All these factors were observed in Iraq during the previous decade, which could be attributable factors to the increased prevalence of NCDs.

The comparison of ASPRs across Middle Eastern countries underscores a troubling pattern of escalating non-communicable disease (NCD) burdens [5]. However, in Iraq specifically, the absence of disease-specific data poses a formidable challenge in drawing definitive conclusions. While this analysis provides valuable insights into prevailing trends, its utility is constrained by the lack of disease specificity. Therefore, further research initiatives must prioritize the identification of risk factors and the evaluation of preventive measures and treatment modalities.

Addressing the Challenge

The transition towards NCD dominance necessitates a paradigm shift in healthcare policies. Prioritizing primary healthcare bolstering, advocacy for healthier lifestyles and addressing environmental determinants are pivotal in curbing this burgeoning crisis.

Conclusion

As Iraq navigates the complex terrain of trend in NCD patterns, proactive measures are indispensable. By fostering a holistic approach encompassing prevention, early intervention, and equitable healthcare access, we can surmount the escalating burden of NCDs while safeguarding public health achievements of the past. The time to act is now.