Status and Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Humans: Dynamics and Control

Introduction

The earliest symptom of the onset of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019 [1]. At first, the morbidity remained low but reached a tipping point in the middle of January 2020. During the second half of January month, a remarkable increase of infected patients in affected cities occurred outside Hubei province because of the population movement before lunar Chinese New Year [2]. The outbreak was started with exponential spread to the other countries by January 23, 2020, attracting extensive attention around the world. Evidence of clusters of infected family members and medical workers confirmed the presence of human- to-human transmission [3] by droplets, contact and fomite [4, 5]. Though, the current estimates of the median incubation period of COVID-19 are three days (range 0 to 24 days), with the potential asymptomatic transmission [6, 7]. At the end of January 2020, WHO confirmed more than ten thousand cases infected with COVID-19 across China [8] (30). As of February 19, 2020, this rose to a total of 74280 confirmed cases in China and 924 confirmed cases in 24 countries outside China, and a total of 2009 deaths globally [9].

The annual assembly of the Christian Open Door Church between 17 and 24 February in Mulhouse is the one key event attended by about 2,500 people, at least half of whom were believed to exposed to the infections in France [10, 11]. To control COVID-19, effective prevention and control measurements must include early detection, diagnosis, treatment, and quarantine to block human- to-human transmission as well as reducing secondary infections among close contacts and health care workers. The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly globally. It took around 90 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of the world. Hence, we examined total cases based on the total tests in 211 Countries/Territories and effect of lockdown in India in terms of total cases and deaths as compared to Spain, USA, France and Italy to help policy maker and health experts to understand the epidemic of COVID-19 infectious disease in 211 Countries/Territories

Materials and Methods

The study has used the COVID-19 data from Worldometer [12], which is running by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. Worldometer data have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation. For the COVID-19 data, Worldometer collected data from official reports, directly from Government’s communication channels or indirectly, through local media sources when deemed reliable. Worldometer provides the source of each data update in the ‘Latest Updates News’ section. Timely updates for users around the world and to the dedication of a team of analysts and researchers who validate data from an ever-growing list of over 5,000 sources.

The study included COVID-19 data on the total number for tests, positive, deaths and recovered for 211 Countries/ Territories on 07th April 2020. Selected Countries/ Territories demographic information was extracted from the Worldometer [12]. We have used the exponential rate to estimate the rates in total cases and deaths, and it’s changed from 3rd March to 7th April 2020. Data were extracted from Worldometer to Microsoft Excel 2016 for performing the statistical analysis.

Discussion and Conclusion

Unlike the diagnostic evaluation of COVID-19 infectious disease in the developed world like USA, Italy, Spain, etc., by and large, in developing and under-developing countries, diagnosis evaluation is weak. Due to this, there is a lack of actual information about a patient suffering from COVID-19 in developing and under-developing nations. Hence, the purpose of the present study is to highlight those countries/ territories, poor reporting system of COVID-19 at the community level. This study also tried to highlight rates of spread of COVID-19 infectious disease by applying the exponential model. Since contagion spreads through the structure of social contacts and it varies across the world. Moreover, it is necessary to resolve aspects of a population in any model that attempts to understand and predict how the modification of the social contact structure through social distancing impacts the spread of disease. This study used the exponential mathematical model to show a trend in rates of total cases and deaths for selected countries by using empirical case data published in the daily report of WHO. To assess the impact of social distancing, frequently hand wash, use of face masks measures in the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the world and some selected countries. Our principal goal is to measure the effect of lockdown in India in terms of total cases and deaths as compared to Spain, USA, France and Italy.

In India, lockdown with periodic relaxation reduced the number of cases and deaths. Our study also found that based on worldometer empirical country-wise data which published in the daily report, in the world there are 63 Countries/ Territories, who didn’t report the number of tests till 7 April 2020. Among these 63 Countries/ Territories, China, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Diamond Princess Uzbekistan and Cameroon had reported a higher number of cases. These countries didn’t put effort to report the total number of test daily/weekly, and it might be due busy with handling the COVID-19 cases along with other health care services. On the other hand, many countries are monitoring total everyday tests. For instance, USA has done more testing than all of these countries combined- France, South Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Austria, Australia, Sweden, Canada and India [13]. In India out of total tests total positive cases was less (around four positives cases at per 100 tests) compared to USA, Italy, Spain, and France countries. It may be due to effect of lockdown and awareness or due to a smaller number of tests, but some force of lockdown and awareness there exists as India government has taken initiatives for controlling the pandemic on March 21, 2020. Some specialist has suggested, if not testing nearly enough to rule out community transmission, and if testing numbers are not consistent with the rest of the world, then that country needs to do better [14]. India has expanded the testing criteria in March 2020 and added some people who have travelled internationally in the last 14 days, contacts of confirmed cases, and symptomatic healthcare workers, patients with severe acute respiratory illness (who have fever and cough and/or shortness of breath) and people who have no symptoms but are in direct and high-risk contact with confirmed cases. India was also opened more testing centres, including some selected private labs.

This study has found more than 20 positive cases per 100 tests in 27 countries out of 211 Countries/ Territories. France is having a higher number of positive cases per 100 as compared to other study countries. It could be because of Christian Open Door Church event between 17 and 24 February in Mulhouse, which was attended by about 2,500 people, and half of them were suspected for the indication [11]. It indicated that France failed to manage and have taken preventive measure much late than other countries. For instance, France was not quarantined before 14 March entirely, but there are a few clusters of coronavirus COVID-19 (Oise, Haute-Savoie, Morbihan, Haut-Rhin, Corse du Sud, Aude and Calvados departments) were restricted for travel. On the other hand, Kindergartens, primary and secondary schools and universities are shut from 16 March 2020. On 14 March 2020, France entered the 3rd phase of the epidemic and the French Prime Minister has therefore ordered closing all places open to the public and that are not essential services (food shops, pharmacies, service stations, banks, press outlets and important public services [15].

Other findings show that the number of cases was high in the USA as compared to India, Italy, Spain and France till 07 April 2020. Mainly COVID-19 spared through respiratory dewdrops and acceleration of transmission population density play a significant role. For instance, the cumulative incidence in urban areas like New York and Washington, D.C exceeds the national average. In mid-February, Louisiana has experienced temporally high population density due to the Influx of visitors during Mardi Gras celebrations. All of the sudden cancelling mass gatherings (e.g., festivals, conferences, and sporting events) ware common in the United States and push the people into the double risk/ vulnerable [16]. We found that the high number of positive cases per 100 tests was seen in lowest densely place and high dense place. For instance, the lowest density was seen in Guyana (4 density) and highest was seen in Sint Maarten (1261 density). It indicates that scary situation everywhere and COVID-19 do not discriminate based on the socio- demography situation of the countries

Conclusion

In the world, around 43% of Countries/ Territories have reported less than 11 positive cases per 100 tests. However, 13% of Countries/ Territories reported 20 plus cases per 100 tests, and nearly 30% Countries/ Territories in the world didn’t report the total number of tests for COVID-19. Among 30 %, China is at topmost in total cases. Also, the overall number of positive cases per 100 tests was seen highest in France. It was also seen highest in most urbanized countries.

Rates in total deaths were declined in Spain, Italy and France from 3 March to 7 April 2020, but Italy was at the topmost in the total number of deaths. In the USA, from 11-18 March to 19-27 March, death rates were increased and further, it starts to decline throughout the study period steadily. It was also seen large variation in deaths among Italy, Spain, USA, France and India. Irrespective of population, speed of COVID-19 infectious disease is very slow in India rather than other countries like Italy, Spain, USA, and France. In contrast, these countries are developed and around 50 years ahead from India in terms of medical health facility and infrastructure. Hence, for minimizing the number of lockdown days, there is a need for proper inspection at the community level, especially at hot spot areas. This study also suggests that countries need for urgent action to strengthen the reporting system at the all level to help policymakers and health expert for addressing the COVID-19 infectious disease.

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

Not applicable.

Availability of Data and Materials

The datasets analysed during the current study is available through following links https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/ and https://www.who.int/emergencies/ diseases/no vel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports.

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Funding

This work did not receive any funding.