ISSN: 2578-4994
Authors: Hald-Mortensen C*
This paper uses the Rumsfeld Matrix risk framework to conduct a comparative analysis of three distinct high-impact natural risks with significant cascading societal effects: pollinator decline, an AMOC collapse, and zoonotic pandemics. The complexities of these risks and their ripple effects, as exemplified by a detailed review of literature suggest that the potential impacts of natural risks on global climate and ecosystems are likely underestimated due to their cascading impacts across society. The paper also discusses the economic consequences of sectoral biodiversity dependencies, and the effects of pollinator loss on food security. This study emphasizes the critical need for understanding cascading risks and for integrating scenario-based planning in policy development. In fact, the study suggests that both governments and corporations could benefit from enhancing their efforts to understand 'low probability-high impact' events related to climate and biodiversity. This is highlighted by the unexpected impactful consequences of the AMOC collapse, and the rise of zoonotic diseases such as COVID-19 and H5N1 avian flu. These cases highlight the necessity for risk analysis and enhanced global readiness. From that conclusion, an optimistic outlook is presented given the potential of supercomputing and machine learning to untangle complex natural risks, and fill knowledge gaps in the face of new unknown-unknowns. In the end, the paper advocates for an integrated approach that merges scientific research, technological advances, and economic data through a new and tailored Rumsfeld Matrix for natural risk management. On the basis of the Matrix, a research agenda is developed for more interdisciplinary cooperation on high impact nature risks, as we edge closer to a 2-3°C world.
Keywords: AMOC collapse, Pandemics, Rumsfeld Matrix, Pollinator Loss, Cascading Risks
