Trend Scenarios of Mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus and its Correlation with the Economic Sector, in the State of Mexico, for the Years 2020, 2025 and 2030

Authors: Curiel BYR, Pedraza AGE*, Estrada MCV and Villasenor GG

DOI: 10.23880/aabsc-16000230

Volume 7, Issue 2

Abstract

Purpose: This research aimed to develop trend scenarios for diabetes mellitus mortality and analyze their correlation with the economic sectors of the municipalities of the State of Mexico for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030, in order to provide shortand medium-term future projections. Materials and Methods: A regression analysis with curvilinear estimation was used to define the scenarios corresponding to 2020, 2025, and 2030. Constants were included in the equations and trends were integrated using linear, quadratic, cubic, compound, growth, and exponential models. The classification of the municipalities was based on the standard deviation, range, and the diabetes mellitus mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants. In addition, the Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to evaluate the relationship with the economic sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, construction, services, restaurants, and hotels. Results: Composite regression models were applied to 47 municipalities, cubic models to 44, quadratic models to 31, while 1 municipality was modeled with a growth approach, another with an exponential model, and one with a linear model. Conclusion: Short- and medium-term scenarios suggest that the industrial and service sectors are predisposed to higher mortality from diabetes mellitus, as evidenced by a low positive correlation. As these economic activities increase, so does the mortality rate associated with this comorbidity.

Keywords: Healthcare Access; Dependency; Gender; Disabled; Socioeconomic Attributes

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