Forecast of the Number of Shark Attacks Globally and in Florida, United State of America

Authors: Osés RR , Zaita FY and Fimia DR

DOI: 10.23880/izab-16000627

Volume 7, Issue 6

Abstract

A forecast is made up to the year 2023 of shark attacks worldwide and in Florida, United States of America, using data corresponding to the period 2007-2016, according to statistics reported in the newspaper "Rebel Youth", Sunday, November 12, 2017, which was taken from the International Shark Attack File (ISAF), for its acronym in English. For the statistical modelling of the data, the methodology of Objective Regressive Regression (ORR) was used, due to its simplicity and speed in obtaining the models. The mean number of shark attacks was 77 cases, with a standard deviation of 11 cases, of which six were fatal, and a maximum of 13 fatal attacks have occurred in the history of this database. In the case of Florida, the mean number of attacks was 24 attacks, with a standard deviation of approximately seven. The analysis of variance cannot show Fisher's F, nor its significance, because the sum of squares of the residuals was zero; therefore, statistics involving division by zero must be calculated. The coefficients of the model showed an upward trend at 3.7 attacks, where the model depends on attacks seven years ago at the Global level. In the case of fatal attacks, the trend was decreasing, although not significant. The model for shark attacks in the state of Florida explains 100% of the variance, with an error of 0.42 cases. Measures must be taken both globally and in Florida to try to reduce both the number of shark attacks and shark fatalities, as well as to protect people and these animals that play such an important role in the food chain.

Keywords: Shark Attacks; ROR Methodology; Prediction

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