ISSN: 2474-8846
Forecasting the Yield of Barley in the North-Western Part of the Oka Basin
To forecast the possible harvest of spring barley for the future, the harvest characteristics obtained from the «Agrogeos» database were used. The database «Agrogeos» contains information about field experiments with barley Agrochemical service and Geonetwork, collected for the period 1966-1996 on the territory of the northwestern part of the Oka basin, where there are 5 regions: Moscow, Oryol, Kaluga, Smolensk, Tula. Information was collected on the yield of barley on the fertilizer-free option (control), on the fertilizer application (maximum yield) and on the variant with barley yield increase (the average value between the control and maximum yield). Since the experiments were initially not coordinated, we were forced to do it ourselves in the Google Earth program, knowing the name of the collective farm, the location of the central manor, you can roughly determine the location of the field. To create a linear model, you need to have data on the 3 main factors affecting ecosystem change: terrain, climate, and soils. Knowing their characteristics, it is possible to identify the main predictors that influence the yield of a possible crop and build a forecast map with a detailed description of yield yields for different methods of cultivation.
Keywords:
Spring Barley; Yield Indicators; Data Bases; Spatial Variability; Relief; Climate; Geomorphometry; Multiple Regression
