ISSN: 2577-4050
Authors: Hafiz MA, Abd El-Hamid HT, Darwish DH, Basiony AI, Abou Hadied MM and El-Alfy MA*
Change detection is one of the most significant indicators that serve the sustainable development of the ecosystem. The aim of study is to make spatial interpolation prediction models for environmental changes of Manzala Lake based on Landsat images, different indices and statistical models. This aim is to assess the environmental changes in the Lake from 1992 to 2019. Vegetation cover was increased tremendously from 19.36 to 35.18 %. Water bodies were decreased from 52.45 to 45.50 % and bare lands were decreased from 28.19 to 19.32 %. Results indicated the order of models efficiency and accuracy as follow; quadratic > logarithm > Linear > Exponential. Consequently, the quadratic model was selected for assessing the environmental changes in the study area. Quadratic model was used to expect changes from 2020 to 2042. There will not be change in the area of the lake, when surface water and urban areas are equally within the studied area. The obtained data from used statistical models at the end of 2042 give assumption that the vegetation cover will disappear. While in the following period, models failed to describe what will be occur. This is ensured from the value of absolute error that less than one. The analyzed data for some physiochemical parameters showed different water quality between 2016 and 2019, as it is more suitable in 2019. MODIS/Aqua data indicate lower chlorophyll concentrations at 2018 and higher in 2015. The study can aid decision makers within solutions to manage and keep area and biodiversity of Lake Manzala using new technologies.
Keywords: Change Detection; Manzala Lake; Remote Sensing; Statistical Model; MODIS-Aqua
