ISSN: 2639-2038
Authors: Turabian JL*
The limitations of incidence rates (IR) studies because of the severe deficit in COVID-19 testing capacity worldwide, implies that these data are “minimum†rates. It is required alternative options to evaluate the real incidence, and performance of infection control strategies. COVID-19 occurs in the general practitioner (GP) practice frequently as acute respiratory infection (ARI), and these ARI (such as the flu) share similar routes of transmission (mainly through droplets and fomites) with COVID-19. So, incidence rates of ARI in GP practice during the COVID-19 outbreak represent “maximum†rates of COVID-19, and these figures allow us to estimate the true incidence of COVID-19 (for example, considering that 50% of ARI in the GP during the outbreaks are actually COVID-19), which is useful for epidemiological, planning and management purposes, including evaluation of control measures which should have qualitatively similar effects on ARI. This study shows incidence rates of ARI obtained at a GP practice, during March-April 2020 (most intense phases of the COVID-19 outbreak) in Toledo (Castilla La Mancha, Spain), and based on it, incidence rates real or reasonable are estimated for Spain, Castilla La Mancha (a region of Spain), Toledo province, the work area of a Health Center in Toledo capital, and in the list of patients of the GP. These data are compared with "official" COVID-19 incidence rates. It is suggested that the "official" COVID-19 incidence rates, should be multiplied by 3 or 5 to obtain the real or reasonable rate of COVID-19 in these places where diagnostic tests are not performed in all possible cases during the outbreak. The actual probable incidence is 3-5% of COVID-19 infections in the population analyzed in March-April 2020.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Acute Respiratory Infections; General Practice; Epidemiology; Population Surveillance/ methods; Public Health Practice
