Modeling and Predicting the Impact of Climate Variability on Influenza Virus Spread in Cuba

Authors: Linares Vega Y*, Ortiz Bulto PL*, Borroto Gutierrez S, Acosta Herrera B, Valdes Ramírez O and Guzman MG

DOI: 10.23880/oajmms-16000130

Volume 3, Issue 2

Abstract

Influenza viruses are among the main causes of acute respiratory infections in Cuba, associated to pneumonia, and among the five first causes of dead in the last decades. Tropical climate has a great influence on influenza variations and seasonality. The significant increasing of climatic anomalies yield by anthropogenic climate change, carries modifications in the reproductive capacity of the virus and its circulation in temporal as in spatial scale. That´s why, forecast the dynamic of influenza in the country, would allow to health system decision-makers taking the appropriate actions to control the disease.

Keywords: Climate Variability; Influenza; Heteroscedasticity; Prediction; Seasonality; Spatial Autoregressive Model

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