Polymerase Chain Reaction Positivity Rate for Covid-19 in General Medicine in Toledo (Spain) from May 19 to September 30, 2020. Is it Re-Outbreak, Second Wave of Virus or Lack of Testing?

Authors: Turabian JL*

Special Issue 2

Abstract

Objective: Describe the positivity rate of COVID-19 with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test with the aim of discovering temporal trends that may reflect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Methodology: A retrospective and descriptive study was carried out on patients suspected of COVID-19 diagnosed with PCR, who consulted in general medicine office at a health center in Toledo, Spain, from May 15 to September 30, 2020. Results: 186 patients were included as suspected cases or contacts. There were 56 positives (30%). Its distribution in number of PCR test and positivity rate in % by fortnights from May 15 to September 30, was: 3 (0%); 9 (0%); 1 (0%): 6 (9%); 9 (22%); 19 (47%); 61 (41%); 44 (34%); and 24 (21%). The number of tests needed to find a case varied between 2.1 and 4.8, and the number of tests that should have been done in relation to the number of positives varied between 20 and 250, depending on the time dates. Conclusion: The data are compatible with the existence of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, and an insufficient number of tests performed.

Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Polymerase Chain Reaction; Epidemics; General Practice; Epidemiology

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