ISSN: 2639-2038
Authors: Turabian JL*
There is a great need for better estimates of the COVID-19 burden to guide decision making. This includes the local level of general practitioner (GP) practice, which plays a vital role in all epidemiological research; the recognition of cases and their notification depends on the GP. There is a whole set of different ways to approach the knowledge of the epidemiological data of morbidity of COVID-19 in the community, some of which are of interest to the GP, such as: • Official case data, number of new infections and positivity rates; • Hospital admissions, admissions to intensive care units, and deaths; • Epidemiological mathematical modelling studies; • Serological test/seroprevalence; • Prevalence of asymptomatic disease; • Assessment of the number of secondary cases of an index case and the basic reproductive number; • Incidence rate of acute respiratory infections; • Syndromic surveillance tools and mobile phone tracking of symptoms and personal health trackers; and • Cohort studies. A single figure cannot provide a complete picture of the status of a pandemic. Conclusions about epidemiological surveillance for COVID-19 using only one type of data are likely to result in poor performance models and inaccurate forecasts. Estimates at the national level can hide local heterogeneity and seasonal differences. Furthermore, data delays, probabilistic effects, superspreading, and infections caused by asymptomatic patients create biases in the data. Consequently, it is required several alternative options, to combine disparate sources of data or lines of evidence at the general and local level, to evaluate the real incidence, and performance of infection control strategies at the level of the GP office. Each epidemiological surveillance strategy has deficiencies and weaknesses; it has holes like Swiss cheese. A hole in one layer of knowledge is not necessarily a disaster if there are many other layers to fall back on. This model underscores the importance of the general medical system that can adapt to changing situations.
Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; General Practice; Epidemiology; Infectious Disease; Outbreak Modelling; Acute Respiratory Infections; Population Surveillance/methods; Public Health Practice
