ISSN: 2639-216X
Authors: Duarte RF*
Emerging and re-emerging diseases are the health problems have aroused interest world. This work to determine the influence some meteorological variables exert in the larval populations of culicids, by means of the mathematical modeling in the province Villa Clara, Cuba. Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) the following variables as responses: general and specific larval densities, and as explanatory variables: relative humidity, temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, mean wind speed and atmospheric pressure. The real and predicted value was plotted for the province. The analysis of variance corresponding time series for the General Larval Density (GLD) and the Specific Larval Density (SLD) the province of Villa Clara and in three municipalities (Ranchuelo, Sagua la Grande and Santa Clara), the correlations were designed between the predicted and real value of meteorological variables. General and specific larval densities showed a cyclical and seasonal behavior, with the high values from May to October, coinciding with the rainy period in Cuba. Temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed and atmospheric pressure proved to be excellent predictors of population dynamics of mosquitoes with entomoepidemiological importance and; therefore, for surveillance mosquito borne diseases in both human and animal populations. Predictive models for general and specific larval densities based on meteorological variables allowed the population dynamics of mosquitoes, in both urban and rural ecosystems, and their impact on the risk of disease transmission, thus allowing better predictive scenarios to be developed and supporting the implementation of better control strategies.
Keywords: General Larval Density (GLD); Specific Larval Density (SLD); Mathematical Modeling; Mosquitoes; Climate Variables; Villa Clara
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