ISSN: 2578-5001
Authors: Below D*, Mairanowski J and Mairanowski F
A simple calculation method is proposed based on the approximate spread model of COVID 19. A comparison of the calculation results for NYC and Berlin with observational data on the development of the epidemic in these cities shows a good match. The calculation method uses two empirical coefficients. One of them for a certain strain of the virus depends only on the population size. The second coefficient is determined by the intensity of contacts between carriers of the virus. The correlation of this coefficient with quarantine conditions and socio-demographic characteristics of cities makes it possible to use the proposed methodology not only for calculating epidemic growth but also for operational forecasting. The analysis of the passage of different epidemic waves in NYC and Berlin allows us to draw some preliminary conclusions about the effectiveness of epidemic control in both cities. The proposed model can be an additional simple and reliable tool for city administrations to continuously monitor the development of the epidemic, especially in its early stages.
Keywords: Epidemic; Quarantine; Infection; Coronavirus
