ISSN: 2578-5001
Authors: Allieta M and Rossi Sebastiano D*
Background: Time dependent reproduction number is the most relevant parameters to track the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. However, especially at the initial stages, Rt can be highly underestimated because of remarkable differences between the actual number of infected people and the daily incidence of people who are tested positive. In our work, we analyzed the daily cumulative number of hospitalized (HP) and intensive care unit (ICU) patients both in space and in time in the early phases of second wave COVID-19 pandemic across eight different European countries. Methods: We derived simple model equations to fit the time dependence of these two variables where exponential behavior is observed. Growth rate constants of HP and ICU are listed, providing country-specific parameters able to estimate the burden of SARS-COV-2 infection before extensive containment measures take place. Results: A trend between the HP and ICU constants is confirmed for almost all the countries considered. This paves the way to delineate a more general correlation where for a given amount of HP a given amount of ICU can be then associated. Conclusions: Our quantitative parameters, fully related to hospitalizations, are disentangled from the capacity range of the screening campaign, for example the number of swabs, and they cannot be directly biased by the actual number of infected people. This approach can provide reliable indicators which can be used to monitor the dynamics of COVID-19 in the peaks of epidemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Second Wave; Europe; ICU; Hospitalization
