ISSN: 2639-2038
Authors: Below D and Mairanowski F*
The article presents a detailed description of the methodology for calculating the epidemic spread of coronavirus based on the ASILV model, stratified by age groups. The calculations do not require the development of special computer programs and can be easily performed using the standard EXCEL platform. Comparison of the results of prevalence calculations as well as the values of seven- day incidence values calculated using the proposed methodology with the corresponding observation data shows good correspondence between them for individual age groups. The greatest influence on the overall spread of the epidemic is in the 15-44 age groups. The relatively low level of vaccination and high social activity in these age groups causes the epidemic to spread more steeply than in other age groups. The intensity of the epidemic in the 85+ age group has some specific features in comparison with other groups, which may be explained by differences in contact patterns among individuals in this age group. The proposed methodology for calculating 'breakthrough' infections among vaccinated persons can be used as an estimate. As data on breakthrough infection statistics accumulate, the methodology should be refined. Approximate ratios for estimating the number of hospital admissions and deaths as a function of the intensity of infection are provided. The proposed ASILV model, stratified by age group, allows detailed and reasonably accurate prediction of the spread of the COVID19 epidemic, including the emergence of new, more transmissible virus variants.
Keywords: Breakthrough; ASILV Model; COVID-19; Lockdown; Infections
