Forecast of the Number of Shark Attacks Worldwide and in Florida, United States

Authors: Rodriguez RO* and Martínez AP

DOI: 10.23880/izab-16000345

Volume 5, Issue 1

Abstract

A forecast is made until the year 2023 of shark attacks worldwide and in Florida, United States of America, for this the data corresponding to the period 2007 to 2016 were used according to the statistics reported in the newspaper Juventud Rebelde on Sunday 12 November 2017 that was taken from the International Shark Attack Archive (ISAF). For statistical modeling, the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) was used due to its simplicity and speed to obtain the models. The average number of shark attacks is 77 cases with a standard deviation of 11 cases of them with fatal consequences 6 and a maximum of 13 fatal attacks have occurred in the history of this database, in the case of Florida the average of attacks is 24 attacks with a standard deviation of approximately 7. The analysis of variance cannot show Fisher's F nor its significance because the sum of squares of the residuals is zero, statistics that involve division by zero according to the authors of division by zero must be calculated. The coefficients of the model show a tendency to rise by 3.7 attacks, the model depends on the attacks 7 years ago at the Global level. In fatal attacks the trend is downward, although not significant. The model for shark attacks in the state of Florida explains 100% of the variance with an error of 0.42 cases. Measures must be taken both globally and in Florida to try to reduce both the number of shark attacks and the victims caused by these accidents, as well as protect people and these animals that play such an important role in the food chain.

Keywords: Shark Attacks; Prediction; ROR Methodology

View PDF