ISSN: 2578-4994
Authors: Christian Hald-Mortensen*
Biodiversity loss is accelerating in the Anthropocene, driven by land and sea use changes, climate change, pollution, unsustainable exploitation of natural resources and the spread of invasive species. This paper uses the Rumsfeld Matrix—a tool for categorizing knowledge—to understand the impacts of these drivers of biodiversity loss. What are the relationships between extinction risks, ecosystem resilience, and the chain reactions that biodiversity loss triggers? By identifying gaps in knowledge—such as species adaptation, climate tipping points, and human-driven environmental changes—the study highlights challenges in predicting and preventing biodiversity loss due to cascading impacts. Known-Unknowns in biodiversity include species adaptability, ecosystem recovery, and pollinator decline, highlighting important areas in long-term ecological forecasting. Unknown-Unknowns in biodiversity studies include unforeseen ecosystem collapses, new diseases, and the biodiversity impacts of tipping points in the AMOC or Amazon rain forest, highlighting unpredictable, nonlinear risks requiring improved predictive modeling. The paper explores evolutionary theories like punctuated equilibrium and gradualism, which explain past extinctions like the K–Pg event (an unknown known), applying these lessons to modern conservation. Economic estimates of biodiversity loss remain uncertain, facing methodological issues, hidden costs in key sectors, and overlooked regional ecosystem dependencies. The paper argues that new technologies—including machine learning and computer vision, as well as time-series analysis—are improving species tracking and prediction of biodiversity changes, enabling scientists to unravel the unknown unknowns within the biodiversity loss agenda.
Keywords: Biodiversity Loss; Cascading Impacts; Rumsfeld Matrix; Tipping Points; Climate-Biodiversity Nexus
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