Climate Variability and the Sustainability of Snail Farming in Nigeria: Past Trends, Present Challenges and Potential Outlook

Authors: Edaba MIE* , Aroyehun AR and Amaegberi H

DOI: 10.23880/izab-16000684

Volume 9, Issue 3

Abstract

Climate variability poses significant challenges to the sustainability of agricultural enterprises, particularly climate-sensitive micro-livestock systems such as snail farming. This study examines the implications of climate variability for snail production in Nigeria using annual time-series data spanning 2000–2024. The analysis employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Mann–Kendall trend analysis to evaluate both long-run and short-run relationships among climatic and socio-economic variables. The ARDL bounds test produced an F-statistic of 6.08, confirming a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among snail output, rainfall, temperature, wages, population, and relative humidity. Long-run estimates revealed that rainfall significantly reduced output (β = -3.051, p < 0.05), while wages (β = 0.287, p < 0.01) and relative humidity (β = 0.188, p < 0.01) enhanced production. The ECM coefficient (-1.185, p < 0.01) indicated rapid adjustment toward equilibrium following short-run shocks. Trend analysis further showed that snail production increased from approximately 18,000 tonnes in 2000 to over 46,000 tonnes in 2024. Diagnostic tests confirmed model robustness, while DOLS estimates validated the ARDL findings. The study concludes that moisture-related climatic factors are critical determinants of sustainable snail production and recommends climate-smart management practices, improved drainage systems, and humidity regulation strategies to enhance resilience and productivity in Nigeria's heliciculture sector.

Keywords: Climate Variability; Snail Farming; ARDL Model; DOLS Estimator

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