ISSN: 2641-9130
Authors: Johansson T*
The lottery paradox is treated as a serious epistemological problem. Philosophers try to solve it by modifying their concepts of rationality. I argue that this is unnecessary. The paradox never occurs in reality, since a crucial assumption -- that people accept that certain lottery tickets will not win -- is refuted by cognitive science. We always exaggerate small probabilities, such as the possibility to win a lottery. Of course, at some point we lose faith in the chance. However, this lack of confidence is not based on a mature consideration of the ticket's chances -- but a result of an exchange of questions, our desperate last attempt to form an answer. Hence the lottery paradox is a purely theoretical problem, parted from reality.
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