Implementation of a Real-Time, Data-Driven Online Epidemic Calculator for Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in Singapore and Other Countries

Authors: Fook Fah Yap* and Minglee Yong

DOI: 10.23880/eij-16000177

Volume 5, Issue 1

Abstract

While there are many online data dashboards on COVID-19, there are few analytics available to the general public to help them gain a deeper insight into the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the effectiveness of social intervention measures. To address the issue, this study describes the methods underlying the development of an online COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator for tracking COVID-19 growth parameters. From publicly available infection case and death data, the calculator is used to estimate the effective reproduction number, doubling time, final epidemic size, and death toll. As a case study, we analyzed the results for Singapore during the “Circuit breaker” period from April 7, 2020 to the end of May 2020. The calculator shows that the stringent measures imposed have an immediate effect of rapidly slowing down the spread of the coronavirus. After about two weeks, the effective reproduction number reduced to about 1.0. Since then, the number has been fluctuating around 1.0 for more than a month. The COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator is available in the form of an online Google Sheet and the results are presented as Tableau Public dashboards at www.cv19.one. By making the calculator readily accessible online, the public can have a tool to meaningfully assess the effectiveness of measures to control the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Reproduction Number; Doubling Time; Epidemic Calculator; Singapore

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